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Luke Stewart v Nick Hiley (Mon 15 Jul 2019)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-4,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Luke Stewart: 5,036, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,449, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Luke Stewart to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Nick Hiley.

Nick Hiley won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 5% better than Luke Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Hiley actually played at a level of 4,858 and Luke Stewart at a level of 4,612. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to +6.4% and Luke Stewart changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes +2.8% and for Luke Stewart becomes -3.4%.

Given Luke Stewart's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is +1.8% and for Luke Stewart is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 87%, Luke Stewart: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 80%, Luke Stewart: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Stewart: 4,922, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,524, level confidence: 80%.