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Nick Hiley v Philip Coleman (Wed 17 Jul 2019)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 12-15,10-15,15-0,15-0,15-0.

Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,496, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Philip Coleman: 5,818, level confidence: 64%.
Philip Coleman to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Nick Hiley.

Nick Hiley won 60% of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 123% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 38% better than Philip Coleman in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Hiley actually played at a level of 6,015 and Philip Coleman at a level of 4,348. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to +24% and Philip Coleman changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes +7.6% and for Philip Coleman becomes -8.5%.

Given Philip Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is +5% and for Philip Coleman is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 89%, Philip Coleman: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 66%, Philip Coleman: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,712, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Philip Coleman: 5,533, level confidence: 60%.