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Joshua Green v Liam Townsend (Thu 25 Jul 2019)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 2,247, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Liam Townsend: 976, level confidence: 35%.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Liam Townsend.

Joshua Green won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 83% better than Liam Townsend in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joshua Green was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,418 and 2,247 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joshua Green played at level 1,835 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joshua Green would normally have been playing at level 1,882 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Townsend played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to 0% and Liam Townsend changes to +1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes 0% and for Liam Townsend becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Joshua Green is 0% and for Liam Townsend is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 81%, Liam Townsend: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 73%, Liam Townsend: 53%.

Final level for Joshua Green: 2,247, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Liam Townsend: 983, level confidence: 53%.