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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Ahmed Hosny (Sun 21 Jul 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 7-11,11-3,11-7,9-11,11-3.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 38,081, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ahmed Hosny: 17,914, level confidence: 65%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Ahmed Hosny.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 18% better than Ahmed Hosny in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Mangaonkar was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,155 and 38,081 without affecting his level.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 24,344, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 32,744 (based on typical behaviour), Ahmed Hosny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -10.2% and Ahmed Hosny changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -2.5% and for Ahmed Hosny becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%, Ahmed Hosny: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 61%, Ahmed Hosny: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,153, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ahmed Hosny: 18,649, level confidence: 60%.