Youssef Soliman v Tayyab Aslam (Mon 22 Jul 2019)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
36,548, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
30,828, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Tayyab Aslam.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
43% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
40,178 and Tayyab Aslam at a level of
28,043. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +9.1% and Tayyab Aslam changes to -6.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.3% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 79%, Tayyab Aslam: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 72%, Tayyab Aslam: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
37,273, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
30,369, level confidence: 83%.