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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Sebastian Bonmalais (Mon 22 Jul 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,11-2,8-11,6-11,11-4.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,197, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 26,615, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 17% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 32,861, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 35,906 (based on typical behaviour), Sebastian Bonmalais played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -4.6% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.5% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 78%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 71%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,633, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 27,111, level confidence: 80%.