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Alejandro Enriquez v Diego Gobbi (Tue 23 Jul 2019)

Match won by Alejandro Enriquez. Result: 11-7,12-10,8-11,9-11,11-8.

Starting level for Alejandro Enriquez: 11,884, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 23,336, level confidence: 57%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Alejandro Enriquez.

Alejandro Enriquez won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alejandro Enriquez played 10% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alejandro Enriquez actually played at a level of 17,436 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 15,905. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alejandro Enriquez changes to +31% and Diego Gobbi changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alejandro Enriquez becomes +7.6% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alejandro Enriquez: 59%, Diego Gobbi: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alejandro Enriquez: 40%, Diego Gobbi: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alejandro Enriquez: 12,766, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 22,390, level confidence: 52%.