Leo Au v Youssef Soliman (Tue 23 Jul 2019)
Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-9.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
41,419, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
37,017, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Youssef Soliman.
Leo Au won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played
74% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of
51,604 and Youssef Soliman at a level of
29,711. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +21% and Youssef Soliman changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +4.3% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 89%, Youssef Soliman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 71%, Youssef Soliman: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leo Au:
42,991, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,612, level confidence: 68%.