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Arturo Salazar v Micah Franklin (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,532, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Micah Franklin: 14,748, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 161% better than Micah Franklin.

Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 74% better than Micah Franklin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Arturo Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,667 and 38,532 without affecting his level.

In this case, Arturo Salazar played at level 28,102 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Arturo Salazar would normally have been playing at level 30,830 (based on typical behaviour), Micah Franklin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to 0% and Micah Franklin changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes 0% and for Micah Franklin becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 74%, Micah Franklin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 60%, Micah Franklin: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 38,474, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Micah Franklin: 14,966, level confidence: 72%.