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Diego Elias v Todd Harrity (Thu 25 Jul 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 55,371, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 36,497, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Todd Harrity.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 70% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 58,613 and Todd Harrity at a level of 34,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +4.7% and Todd Harrity changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +1.4% and for Todd Harrity becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 75%, Todd Harrity: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 71%, Todd Harrity: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 55,732, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 36,321, level confidence: 87%.