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Michael Aley v Julian Soehnchen (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,973, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Julian Soehnchen: 5,474, level confidence: 67%.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Julian Soehnchen.

Michael Aley won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 27% better than Julian Soehnchen in this match.

As Michael Aley has played below his allowed range at 7,077, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 7,635 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Soehnchen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to -1.4% and Julian Soehnchen changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes -0.8% and for Julian Soehnchen becomes +1.8%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Given Julian Soehnchen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is -0.4% and for Julian Soehnchen is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 76%, Julian Soehnchen: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 71%, Julian Soehnchen: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 7,922, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Julian Soehnchen: 5,527, level confidence: 76%.