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Tom Kirby v Nick Hiley (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Tom Kirby. Result: 10-12,5-11,11-7,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Tom Kirby: 4,996, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,699, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Tom Kirby to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Nick Hiley.

Tom Kirby won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Kirby played 13% better than Nick Hiley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Kirby actually played at a level of 5,157 and Nick Hiley at a level of 4,553. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Kirby changes to +3.1% and Nick Hiley changes to -2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Kirby becomes +1.8% and for Nick Hiley becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Tom Kirby is +1.2% and for Nick Hiley is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Kirby: 72%, Nick Hiley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Kirby: 70%, Nick Hiley: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Kirby: 5,047, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,654, level confidence: 85%.