Philip McSweeney v Oscar Hill (Sat 20 Jul 2019)
Match won by Philip McSweeney. Result: 11-8,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
Philip McSweeney:
5,137, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,230, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Philip McSweeney.
Philip McSweeney won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Philip McSweeney played
50% better than Oscar Hill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Philip McSweeney actually played at a level of
6,352 and Oscar Hill at a level of
4,229. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Philip McSweeney changes to +23% and Oscar Hill changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Philip McSweeney becomes +7.3% and for Oscar Hill becomes -5.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Wimbledon Senior Graded Event 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Oscar Hill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Philip McSweeney: 79%, Oscar Hill: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Philip McSweeney: 64%, Oscar Hill: 72%.
Final level for Philip McSweeney:
5,510, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
4,981, level confidence: 72%.