Patrick Fitzpatrick v David Norman (Thu 01 Aug 2019)
Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 9-11,20-22,12-10,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,834, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
David Norman:
7,925, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Norman to win as he is currently playing
107% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.
Patrick Fitzpatrick won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played
8% better than David Norman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of
5,737 and David Norman at a level of
5,296. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +32% and David Norman changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +10.3% and for David Norman becomes -6.9%.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 87% has been applied to his level change.
Given David Norman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 191% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +2.2% and for David Norman is -0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 76%, David Norman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 51%, David Norman: 56%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,918, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for David Norman:
7,855, level confidence: 56%.