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Garth Jagles v David Wallond (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Garth Jagles. Result: 13-15,15-8,15-12,8-15,15-4.

Starting level for Garth Jagles: 2,155, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,710, level confidence: 65%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Garth Jagles.

Garth Jagles won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Garth Jagles played 13% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Garth Jagles actually played at a level of 2,570 and David Wallond at a level of 2,273. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Garth Jagles changes to +17% and David Wallond changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Garth Jagles becomes +7.2% and for David Wallond becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Garth Jagles is +4.7% and for David Wallond is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Garth Jagles: 81%, David Wallond: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Garth Jagles: 68%, David Wallond: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Garth Jagles: 2,253, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,595, level confidence: 68%.