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Todd Harrity v Christopher Binnie (Sat 20 Jul 2019)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 33,929, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 20,611, level confidence: 48%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Christopher Binnie.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 267% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 50,637 and Christopher Binnie at a level of 13,810. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +31% and Christopher Binnie changes to -37%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +6.1% and for Christopher Binnie becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Todd Harrity is limited to +5.5% and Christopher Binnie is limited to -6.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 76%, Christopher Binnie: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 51%, Christopher Binnie: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 35,637, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie: 19,445, level confidence: 47%.