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Chris Hanson v Maximiliano Camiruga (Sat 20 Jul 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 28,963, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Maximiliano Camiruga: 10,700, level confidence: 34%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 171% better than Maximiliano Camiruga.

Chris Hanson won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 94% better than Maximiliano Camiruga in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Hanson was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,034 and 28,963 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Hanson played at level 21,788 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Hanson would normally have been playing at level 22,854 (based on typical behaviour), Maximiliano Camiruga played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to 0% and Maximiliano Camiruga changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes 0% and for Maximiliano Camiruga becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 80%, Maximiliano Camiruga: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 68%, Maximiliano Camiruga: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 28,920, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Maximiliano Camiruga: 10,838, level confidence: 49%.