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Miguel Rodriguez v Noah Browne (Sun 21 Jul 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-7,1-11,3-11,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,541, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Noah Browne: 13,028, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 273% better than Noah Browne.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 4% better than Noah Browne in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,542 and 48,541 without affecting his level.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 17,478, his level reduction is 29% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 33,079 (based on typical behaviour), Noah Browne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 56%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -14% and Noah Browne changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -3.1% and for Noah Browne becomes +5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 74%, Noah Browne: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 39%, Noah Browne: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,026, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Noah Browne: 13,671, level confidence: 45%.