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Arturo Salazar v Leandro Romiglio (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 14-12,8-11,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,380, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Leandro Romiglio: 18,900, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Leandro Romiglio.

Arturo Salazar won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 21% better than Leandro Romiglio in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Arturo Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,186 and 38,380 without affecting his level.

As Arturo Salazar has played below his allowed range at 25,833, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Arturo Salazar would normally have been playing at level 33,469 (based on typical behaviour), Leandro Romiglio played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to -8.9% and Leandro Romiglio changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes -2.3% and for Leandro Romiglio becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 78%, Leandro Romiglio: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 60%, Leandro Romiglio: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 37,471, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Leandro Romiglio: 19,445, level confidence: 68%.