Todd Harrity v Diego Gobbi (Wed 24 Jul 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
36,493, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
22,644, level confidence: 69%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
61% better than Diego Gobbi.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
65% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
36,925 and Diego Gobbi at a level of
22,379. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +0.9% and Diego Gobbi changes to -0.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +0.3% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 85%, Diego Gobbi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 84%, Diego Gobbi: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
36,497, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
22,646, level confidence: 82%.