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Miguel Rodriguez v Josue Enriquez (Wed 24 Jul 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 7-11,3-11,11-7,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 46,935, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Josue Enriquez: 16,123, level confidence: 58%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 191% better than Josue Enriquez.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 12% better than Josue Enriquez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,524 and 46,935 without affecting his level.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 22,250, his level reduction is 24% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 35,942 (based on typical behaviour), Josue Enriquez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 41%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -13% and Josue Enriquez changes to +22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -2.9% and for Josue Enriquez becomes +5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 77%, Josue Enriquez: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 48%, Josue Enriquez: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,538, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Josue Enriquez: 16,969, level confidence: 47%.