Chris Hanson v Arturo Salazar (Thu 25 Jul 2019)
Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 10-12,11-4,11-7,14-12.
Starting level for
Chris Hanson:
29,782, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
36,232, level confidence: 63%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Chris Hanson.
Chris Hanson won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played
27% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of
37,037 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
29,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +16% and Arturo Salazar changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +3.7% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 92%, Arturo Salazar: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 74%, Arturo Salazar: 64%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Hanson:
30,802, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
34,728, level confidence: 64%.