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Miguel Rodriguez v Shawn Delierre (Thu 25 Jul 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 9-11,7-11,11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,575, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Shawn Delierre: 24,094, level confidence: 55%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Shawn Delierre.

Miguel Rodriguez won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 12% better than Shawn Delierre in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 36,440 and 45,575 without affecting his level.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 31,312, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 40,752 (based on typical behaviour), Shawn Delierre played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -9.2% and Shawn Delierre changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -2.2% and for Shawn Delierre becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 83%, Shawn Delierre: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 64%, Shawn Delierre: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 44,544, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Shawn Delierre: 25,054, level confidence: 57%.