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Josue Enriquez v Diego Gobbi (Mon 29 Jul 2019)

Match won by Josue Enriquez. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Josue Enriquez: 17,022, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 22,405, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Josue Enriquez.

Josue Enriquez won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josue Enriquez played 52% better than Diego Gobbi in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josue Enriquez actually played at a level of 24,049 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 15,858. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josue Enriquez changes to +35% and Diego Gobbi changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josue Enriquez becomes +7.7% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Josue Enriquez is limited to +6.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josue Enriquez: 68%, Diego Gobbi: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josue Enriquez: 48%, Diego Gobbi: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josue Enriquez: 18,156, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,482, level confidence: 64%.