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Chris Hanson v Juan Camilo Vargas (Wed 31 Jul 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 30,706, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 30,041, level confidence: 69%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Juan Camilo Vargas.

Chris Hanson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 56% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of 37,987 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 24,283. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +22% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +4.8% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 85%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 69%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 31,997, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 28,790, level confidence: 67%.