William Johnson v David Wallond (Wed 07 Aug 2019)
Match won by William Johnson. Result: 15-7,16-14,15-12.
Starting level for
William Johnson:
4,622, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
2,583, level confidence: 65%.
William Johnson to win as he is currently playing
79% better than David Wallond.
William Johnson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that William Johnson played
45% better than David Wallond in this match.
In this case, William Johnson played at level 3,963 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that William Johnson would normally have been playing at level 4,206 (based on typical behaviour), David Wallond played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for William Johnson changes to 0% and David Wallond changes to +4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for William Johnson becomes 0% and for David Wallond becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for William Johnson is 0% and for David Wallond is +1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. William Johnson: 76%, David Wallond: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. William Johnson: 68%, David Wallond: 73%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for William Johnson:
4,634, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for David Wallond:
2,631, level confidence: 73%.