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Jack Turney v Michael Aley (Fri 09 Aug 2019)

Match won by Jack Turney. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Jack Turney: 14,310, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,917, level confidence: 69%.
Jack Turney to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Michael Aley.

Jack Turney won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Turney played 43% better than Michael Aley in this match.

As Jack Turney has played below his allowed range at 11,560, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Turney would normally have been playing at level 12,984 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Aley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Turney changes to -1.4% and Michael Aley changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Turney becomes -0.7% and for Michael Aley becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Turney: 79%, Michael Aley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Turney: 70%, Michael Aley: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Turney: 14,196, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 8,064, level confidence: 74%.