Steve Baker v Jason McCausland (Sat 10 Aug 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-7,15-11,13-15,15-11.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,137, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Jason McCausland:
1,368, level confidence: 10%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
56% better than Jason McCausland.
Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
27% better than Jason McCausland in this match.
As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 1,788, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,016 (based on typical behaviour), Jason McCausland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -0.4% and Jason McCausland changes to +6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -0.3% and for Jason McCausland becomes +4%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jason McCausland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is 0% and for Jason McCausland is +1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 76%, Jason McCausland: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 69%, Jason McCausland: 29%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,135, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Jason McCausland:
1,387, level confidence: 29%.