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Steve Baker v Jason McCausland (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-7,15-11,13-15,15-11.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,141, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Jason McCausland: 1,367, level confidence: 10%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Jason McCausland.

Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 27% better than Jason McCausland in this match.

As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 1,787, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,018 (based on typical behaviour), Jason McCausland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -0.4% and Jason McCausland changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -0.3% and for Jason McCausland becomes +4%.

Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jason McCausland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is 0% and for Jason McCausland is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 76%, Jason McCausland: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 69%, Jason McCausland: 29%.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,139, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Jason McCausland: 1,386, level confidence: 29%.