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Leonel Cardenas v Hugo Varela (Wed 07 Aug 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 25,990, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Hugo Varela: 19,389, level confidence: 65%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Hugo Varela.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 106% better than Hugo Varela in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of 32,239 and Hugo Varela at a level of 15,631. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +20% and Hugo Varela changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +4.6% and for Hugo Varela becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 66%, Hugo Varela: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 53%, Hugo Varela: 65%.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,177, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Hugo Varela: 18,765, level confidence: 65%.