Leonel Cardenas v Hugo Varela (Wed 07 Aug 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
26,070, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for
Hugo Varela:
19,417, level confidence: 65%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Hugo Varela.
Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
106% better than Hugo Varela in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of
32,312 and Hugo Varela at a level of
15,666. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +20% and Hugo Varela changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +4.5% and for Hugo Varela becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 66%, Hugo Varela: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 53%, Hugo Varela: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
27,255, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Hugo Varela:
18,796, level confidence: 65%.