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Diego Gobbi v Marc Sluis (Wed 07 Aug 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,473, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Marc Sluis: 11,064, level confidence: 69%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Marc Sluis.

Diego Gobbi won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 28% better than Marc Sluis in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,867 and 21,473 without affecting his level.

As Diego Gobbi has played below his allowed range at 15,441, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 19,031 (based on typical behaviour), Marc Sluis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to -6.6% and Marc Sluis changes to +10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes -2% and for Marc Sluis becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Russian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 78%, Marc Sluis: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 64%, Marc Sluis: 67%.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,045, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Marc Sluis: 11,409, level confidence: 67%.