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Youssef Soliman v Gary Wheadon (Wed 07 Aug 2019)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-8,11-9,14-12.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,833, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Gary Wheadon: 14,145, level confidence: 69%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 153% better than Gary Wheadon.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 34% better than Gary Wheadon in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,484 and 35,833 without affecting his level.

As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 21,123, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 29,009 (based on typical behaviour), Gary Wheadon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -6.9% and Gary Wheadon changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -1.9% and for Gary Wheadon becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA South African Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 80%, Gary Wheadon: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 58%, Gary Wheadon: 61%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 35,159, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Gary Wheadon: 14,656, level confidence: 61%.