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Jesus Camacho v Chris Hanson (Thu 08 Aug 2019)

Match won by Jesus Camacho. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-9,6-11,11-6.

Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 26,118, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 32,259, level confidence: 66%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Jesus Camacho.

Jesus Camacho won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jesus Camacho played 8% better than Chris Hanson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jesus Camacho actually played at a level of 30,171 and Chris Hanson at a level of 27,925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho changes to +14% and Chris Hanson changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jesus Camacho becomes +3.4% and for Chris Hanson becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jesus Camacho: 74%, Chris Hanson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jesus Camacho: 64%, Chris Hanson: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jesus Camacho: 26,979, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 31,424, level confidence: 71%.