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Aditya Jagtap v Alfredo Avila (Thu 08 Aug 2019)

Match won by Aditya Jagtap. Result: 6-11,11-6,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Aditya Jagtap: 22,851, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 31,392, level confidence: 54%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Aditya Jagtap.

Aditya Jagtap won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aditya Jagtap played 37% better than Alfredo Avila in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aditya Jagtap actually played at a level of 31,392 and Alfredo Avila at a level of 22,851. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap changes to +31% and Alfredo Avila changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap becomes +6.5% and for Alfredo Avila becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alfredo Avila is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aditya Jagtap: 74%, Alfredo Avila: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aditya Jagtap: 54%, Alfredo Avila: 53%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Aditya Jagtap: 24,264, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,525, level confidence: 53%.