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Campbell Grayson v Vikram Malhotra (Fri 09 Aug 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-7,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 38,369, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 28,255, level confidence: 52%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 200% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of 57,029 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of 19,010. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +31% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +6% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Campbell Grayson is limited to +5.3% and Vikram Malhotra is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 82%, Vikram Malhotra: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 55%, Vikram Malhotra: 49%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 40,287, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 27,381, level confidence: 49%.