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Campbell Grayson v Alan Clyne (Sun 11 Aug 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-5,11-9,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 41,091, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 44,321, level confidence: 60%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Campbell Grayson.

Campbell Grayson won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 27% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of 48,105 and Alan Clyne at a level of 37,859. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +15% and Alan Clyne changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +3.3% and for Alan Clyne becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Houston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 81%, Alan Clyne: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 69%, Alan Clyne: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 42,338, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 43,435, level confidence: 66%.