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David Wallond v Howard Regan (Tue 13 Aug 2019)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 15-8,15-3,15-4.

Starting level for David Wallond: 2,629, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Howard Regan: 1,447, level confidence: 61%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Howard Regan.

David Wallond won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 200% better than Howard Regan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,378 and Howard Regan at a level of 1,126. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +18% and Howard Regan changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +7% and for Howard Regan becomes -9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +4.6% and for Howard Regan is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Howard Regan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 84%, Howard Regan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 66%, Howard Regan: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 2,755, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Howard Regan: 1,382, level confidence: 61%.