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Charlie Warne v Nick Hiley (Thu 15 Aug 2019)

Match won by Charlie Warne. Result: 10-15,15-8,15-12,15-7.

Starting level for Charlie Warne: 6,544, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,622, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Charlie Warne to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Nick Hiley.

Charlie Warne won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Warne played 27% better than Nick Hiley in this match.

As Charlie Warne has played below his allowed range at 5,928, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Charlie Warne would normally have been playing at level 6,301 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Hiley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Warne changes to -0.9% and Nick Hiley changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Warne becomes -0.5% and for Nick Hiley becomes +1.8%.

Given Charlie Warne's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Charlie Warne is 0% and for Nick Hiley is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Warne: 89%, Nick Hiley: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Warne: 84%, Nick Hiley: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Warne: 6,543, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,688, level confidence: 84%.