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Kieran Hillman v Michael Aley (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Kieran Hillman. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Kieran Hillman: 7,538, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,069, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Kieran Hillman.

Kieran Hillman won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kieran Hillman played 25% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kieran Hillman actually played at a level of 8,711 and Michael Aley at a level of 6,983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kieran Hillman changes to +15% and Michael Aley changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kieran Hillman becomes +4.6% and for Michael Aley becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kieran Hillman: 85%, Michael Aley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kieran Hillman: 73%, Michael Aley: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kieran Hillman: 7,874, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,883, level confidence: 74%.