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Oscar Hill v Arran Waterman (Sat 10 Aug 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-2,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 5,145, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arran Waterman: 2,593, level confidence: 31%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Arran Waterman.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 371% better than Arran Waterman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 7,931 and Arran Waterman at a level of 1,682. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +15% and Arran Waterman changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +5.1% and for Arran Waterman becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Arran Waterman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 85%, Arran Waterman: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 55%, Arran Waterman: 36%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 5,402, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Arran Waterman: 2,466, level confidence: 36%.