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Oscar Hill v Tom Lee (Sun 11 Aug 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-3,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 5,911, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Tom Lee: 4,611, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Tom Lee.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 70% better than Tom Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 6,807 and Tom Lee at a level of 4,004. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +13% and Tom Lee changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +4.4% and for Tom Lee becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 74%, Tom Lee: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 64%, Tom Lee: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 6,165, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Lee: 4,512, level confidence: 75%.