Steve Baker v Allister Crossley (Wed 21 Aug 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 10-15,15-9,15-13,15-10.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,135, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,843, level confidence: 55%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Allister Crossley.
Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
22% better than Allister Crossley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,194 and Allister Crossley at a level of
1,793. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +2.1% and Allister Crossley changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +1.6% and for Allister Crossley becomes -2%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +0.5% and for Allister Crossley is -0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 81%, Allister Crossley: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 79%, Allister Crossley: 72%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,145, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,832, level confidence: 72%.