Allister Crossley v Steve Baker (Wed 28 Aug 2019)
Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 18-16,15-13,15-12.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,835, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,149, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Allister Crossley.
Allister Crossley won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played
30% better than Steve Baker in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of
2,261 and Steve Baker at a level of
1,744. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +21% and Steve Baker changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +9.2% and for Steve Baker becomes -8%.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.8% and for Steve Baker is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 84%, Steve Baker: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 68%, Steve Baker: 71%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,887, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,103, level confidence: 71%.