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Allister Crossley v Steve Baker (Wed 28 Aug 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 18-16,15-13,15-12.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,835, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,149, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Allister Crossley.

Allister Crossley won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 30% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 2,261 and Steve Baker at a level of 1,744. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +21% and Steve Baker changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +9.2% and for Steve Baker becomes -8%.

Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.8% and for Steve Baker is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 84%, Steve Baker: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 68%, Steve Baker: 71%.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,887, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,103, level confidence: 71%.