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James Simpson v Perry Malik (Tue 27 Aug 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 4-11,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for James Simpson: 9,389, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,514, level confidence: 64%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 55% better than James Simpson.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 154% better than James Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 18,599 and James Simpson at a level of 7,327. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +20% and James Simpson changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +4.9% and for James Simpson becomes -6%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +2% and for James Simpson is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 80%, James Simpson: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 62%, James Simpson: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Simpson: 9,148, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,838, level confidence: 62%.