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Guillermo Loriente v Michael Aley (Tue 20 Aug 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 8-11,6-11,5-11.

Starting level for Guillermo Loriente: 2,949, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,953, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Guillermo Loriente.

Michael Aley won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 74% better than Guillermo Loriente in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Aley was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,574 and 7,953 without affecting his level.

In this case, Michael Aley played at level 5,674 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 6,285 (based on typical behaviour), Guillermo Loriente played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to 0% and Guillermo Loriente changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes 0% and for Guillermo Loriente becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is 0% and for Guillermo Loriente is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 89%, Guillermo Loriente: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 72%, Guillermo Loriente: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Guillermo Loriente: 3,017, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,973, level confidence: 72%.