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Michael Aley v Ross Brown (Sat 31 Aug 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 12-10,11-9,7-11,11-4.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,866, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Ross Brown: 5,439, level confidence: 31%.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Ross Brown.

Michael Aley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 24% better than Ross Brown in this match.

As Michael Aley has played below his allowed range at 6,972, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 7,543 (based on typical behaviour), Ross Brown played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to -1.4% and Ross Brown changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes -0.7% and for Ross Brown becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Lexden Rfc Shootout Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 83%, Ross Brown: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 77%, Ross Brown: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 7,797, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Ross Brown: 5,554, level confidence: 52%.