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Tarek Momen v Paul Coll (Tue 27 Aug 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-6,11-8,6-11,11-5.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 61,009, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 65,234, level confidence: 56%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Tarek Momen.

Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 27% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 70,996 and Paul Coll at a level of 56,057. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +12% and Paul Coll changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +2.5% and for Paul Coll becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 87%, Paul Coll: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 75%, Paul Coll: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 62,431, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 63,386, level confidence: 64%.