SquashLevels calculations
Rex Hedrick v Jacob Ford (Thu 29 Aug 2019)
Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
33,011, level confidence: 32%.
Starting level for
Jacob Ford:
9,509, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
247% better than Jacob Ford.
Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played
200% better than Jacob Ford in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,467 and 33,011 without affecting his level.
In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 28,527 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Jacob Ford is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 57%, Jacob Ford: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 53%, Jacob Ford: 80%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
33,011, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Jacob Ford:
9,509, level confidence: 80%.