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Chris Simpson v Adam Auckland (Thu 29 Aug 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,844, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 18,560, level confidence: 43%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Adam Auckland.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 35% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,707 and 37,844 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 26,828, his level reduction is 7% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 32,961 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Auckland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -3.5% and Adam Auckland changes to +10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -1.3% and for Adam Auckland becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Cleethorpes Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 77%, Adam Auckland: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 63%, Adam Auckland: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,317, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 19,052, level confidence: 53%.